The Trump administration is grappling with a difficult choice that pits diplomatic tradition against transactional opportunity. China has asked the U.S. to formally “oppose” Taiwan’s independence, a demand that, if met, would upend nearly 50 years of American foreign policy in Asia. The decision rests with President Trump, who is preparing for a crucial meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The request is a direct assault on the U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity,” which has been instrumental in maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait. This policy allows the U.S. to support Taiwan’s defense without explicitly stating whether it would intervene in a conflict, a posture that keeps both Beijing and Taipei guessing. Shifting to “oppose” would remove this ambiguity in Beijing’s favor.
This diplomatic pressure is being applied as the two global powers negotiate a wide range of issues, from trade imbalances to tech competition. The fear among policy experts is that the Trump administration may see a concession on Taiwan as a viable path to securing a favorable trade deal, effectively trading a security commitment for an economic one.
Taiwan is watching these developments with deep concern. The island’s government has emphasized that it is maintaining close communication with Washington to counter what it calls Beijing’s “manipulative narratives.” As a vibrant democracy and a major global technology hub, Taiwan’s future has significant implications for the international order.
Former U.S. officials have warned against making such a concession without a significant return. They argue that a change in language should be tied to a measurable decrease in Chinese military threats against the island. Without such a condition, the U.S. would be giving away a key piece of leverage for free, weakening its own position and that of its allies in the region.
A High Price for Peace? US Mulls China’s Demand on Taiwan
