Vietnam is poised to see an upswing in its rice export value in the latter part of 2026, as international rice prices begin to recover and demand strengthens in key global markets. By mid-August, the country had exported approximately 5.7 million tonnes of rice, with projections for the entire year reaching about 7.7 million tonnes. Despite a forecasted export revenue of around $3.9 billion, this figure represents a 4% decrease from the previous year, primarily due to weaker average prices in the first half of 2026. However, the tide began to turn in July as rice prices climbed by 5.8% compared to the same period last year, offering hope for improved revenue if the upward trend persists.
The global rice market is also showing signs of support for increased shipments. The 2026-27 crop year is expected to experience a supply-demand deficit, and worldwide trade could hit record levels. Additionally, the looming threat of a strong El Niño may compel nations to bolster their food reserves. The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice export market, plans to continue its substantial rice imports, aiming for about 5.6 million tonnes during the 2026-27 crop year. China, too, is ramping up its imports, particularly of broken rice for animal feed, creating more opportunities for Vietnamese exporters.
Other markets are also opening up to Vietnamese rice exports. Nigeria is anticipated to encounter a significant rice supply shortfall, while Kenya has temporarily removed import duties on white rice under a quota system. Furthermore, Vietnamese exporters are capitalizing on opportunities in premium markets, with high-quality, low-emission certified rice fetching prices exceeding $1,000 per tonne in countries like Japan, the European Union, and Australia.
Despite the optimistic outlook, challenges linger for Vietnam’s rice industry. The Philippines is contemplating additional safeguard duties on rice imports from Vietnam and other major suppliers, potentially raising tariffs above 35% and impacting Vietnamese exports to this critical market. Meanwhile, Indonesia is not expected to import rice this year due to robust domestic production and high reserves. Vietnamese rice also faces stiff price competition from Indian and Pakistani suppliers in several African markets.
Moreover, Thailand is expanding its market share in China, while Cambodia is boosting its exports of fragrant rice, intensifying competition for Vietnamese producers. Rising costs for fertilizers, transportation, and energy are putting additional pressure on farmers and exporters. Furthermore, a possible El Niño event could lead to drought and saltwater intrusion towards the end of 2026 and early 2027, potentially affecting the next winter-spring rice crop. Despite these hurdles, improving prices, stronger demand, and interest in premium rice products may bolster Vietnam’s export earnings as the year progresses.